**THE INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER**

A New Statesman Book of the Year
A Le Monde Best Book of 2025

'Amazing ... My book of the year' Alastair Campbell, The Rest Is Politics
'Chilling' Financial Times
'Blistering' Economist
'Excellent' Lewis Goodall
'A cracking book ... Reads like a thriller' Matt Frei, LBC

March 2028: Russian troops capture the small Estonian town of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. After victory in Ukraine, Putin's long-mooted encroachment into the Baltic states has begun. Europe's slow rearmament and its compromised military and intelligence capabilities is now clear for its enemies to exploit. Does Article 5 of NATO apply? What will the alliance decide? Will they risk nuclear war?

In If Russia Wins, military expert and Professor of International Relations at the University of Munich, Carlo Masala explores these questions and underlines what is at stake in Ukraine in the starkest possible terms.

For those of us who have only ever known peace, we are accustomed to everything turning out well in the end. But what if it doesn't?

Translated from the German by Olena Ebel and Ruth Ahmedzai Kemp.

Amazing ... My book of the year * Alastair Campbell, The Rest Is Politics *
Blistering ... An engrossing and chilling tale ... Masala's scenario illuminates why Europe needs to take its own defence more seriously * Economist *
Worryingly resonant * Sunday Times *
An excellent, very short book.... A chilling read but one we all need to take heed of * Lewis Goodall, LBC *
Chilling ... A stark warning of Nato's need to deter Putin * Financial Times *
Chilling ... Sharply focused ... A succinct, high-impact warning of what happens when deterrence is eroded and alliances fail to act-in an age of hybrid war * Nordic Defence Review *
This short book should be read widely. The one hundred or so pages could be read by any politician in a single evening. It would be time well spent * Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Germany) *
Masala and other security experts have been warning of such a situation for years . . . A gripping read * Süddeutsche Zeitung (Germany) *
A geopolitical thriller * Das Parlament (Germany) *
A cracking book ... Reads like a thriller -- Matt Frei * LBC *
A warning to the west * BBC, The Global Story *

Carlo Masala is Professor for International Politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich. He previously worked as Deputy Director in the research department at the NATO Defence College in Rome. Since January 2024, Masala has been Director of the Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich. He received the Lichtenberg Medal in Gold from the Lower Saxony Academy of Sciences in Göttingen in 2023 for his academic work and science communication. If Russia Wins was an immediate #1 bestseller upon publication in Germany, and has since become a bestseller in the Netherlands.