How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likely”—how likely is that, really? Whether we’re trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. Luckily for us, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data to resolve the apparently random and decode the many decisions we face with imperfect information. In The Art of Uncertainty, he shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don’t know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what’s likely to happen in the future. Along the way, we learn how a misinterpretation of a probability contributed to the infamous Bay of Pigs fiasco, why a ship twice the size of the Titanic sank without a trace, and why we can be so confident that no two properly shuffled decks of cards have ever been in the same order. Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don’t, or simply cannot, know.

"Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging…introduction to the mathematics of the unknown." -- Tom Whipple, Times (UK)
"This is, without doubt, the most beautifully crafted book of its kind…rich with stories from fifty years of hard-earned wisdom, each packed with insight and bursting with wit and warmth.… This is a book that challenges our assumptions and offers new perspectives on how to embrace [uncertainty]." -- Hannah Fry, author of Hello World
"David Spiegelhalter is a national treasure, and this might be his wisest, most humane, and most personal book. I urge you to read it." -- Tim Harford, Financial Times columnist and author of The Data Detective
"[The Art of Uncertainty] tackles the hazy science of ambiguity and our flailing efforts to come to terms with it.… [E]ven in a world of uncertainty, it’s essential for us to retain our sense of personal agency and not surrender to nihilism." -- David A. Shaywitz, Wall Street Journal
"A stimulating survey of the myriad ways humans have attempted to quantify the unknown.… This is a sure bet." -- Publishers Weekly
"A satisfying look at the nature of uncertainty." -- Kirkus Reviews
"The Art of Uncertainty contains a lifetime of wisdom from a true master…all wrapped in a light and human touch, with one-line insights to die for. I wish it had existed forty years ago; I suspect it’ll still be keenly read in forty years’ time." -- Michael Blastland, coauthor of The Numbers Game
"Brilliant.… A must-read for anyone who aspires to think intelligently about the world we live in." -- Sir Adrian Smith, president of the Royal Society
"Timely…David Spiegelhalter is one of the [UK's] most distinguished statisticians, but he’s also one of academia’s best communicators…[The Art of Uncertainty] impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction, and creative obfuscation." -- John Naughton - Observer
"A superbly entertaining overview of uncertainty in all its manifestations." -- David J. Hand, author of The Improbability Principle

David Spiegelhalter is a professor emeritus of statistics at the University of Cambridge, a former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and the author of the best-selling book The Art of Statistics. Knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics, he lives in Cambridge, UK.