Winner, 2024 Richard E. Neustadt Book Prize, American Politics Group, Political Studies Association

The president of the United States is at once holder of the highest elected office and commander in chief of the armed forces. How do upcoming elections influence presidents’ behavior during wartime? How do presidents balance perceptions of the national interest with personal political interests?

War on the Ballot examines how electoral politics shaped presidential decisions on military and diplomatic strategy during the wars in Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq. Drawing on a wealth of declassified documents and interviews with senior officials and military officers, Andrew Payne reveals the surprisingly large role played by political considerations during conflicts. He demonstrates how the exigencies of the electoral cycle drove leaders to miss opportunities to limit the human and financial costs of each war, gain strategic advantage, or sue for peace, sometimes making critical decisions with striking disregard for the consequences on the ground. Payne emphasizes the importance of electoral pressures throughout the full course of a conflict, not just around the initial decision to intervene. He shows how electoral constraints operate across different phases of the political calendar, going beyond the period immediately preceding a presidential election.

Offering a systematic analysis of the relationship between electoral politics and wartime decision-making, this book raises crucial questions about democratic accountability in foreign policy.

Prizes

Winner of Richard E. Neustadt Book Prize, American Politics Group, Political Studies Association 2024 (United States)

Andrew Payne has written a truly excellent book. From the Korean and Vietnam Wars to the recent conflict in Iraq, his copiously researched and cogently argued case studies persuasively underline the importance of elections in shaping crucial presidential decisions. This is a must-read for anyone interested in the politics of America’s wars. -- Steven Casey, author of The War Beat, Pacific: The American Media at War Against Japan
With its razor-sharp conceptual framework and meticulously researched cases—backed up by a treasure trove of sources—this book opens a new window on the many and often surprising effects of the U.S. electoral cycle on presidential decision-making in times of war. -- Louise Fawcett, author of Iran and the Cold War
Andrew Payne has written an important book on the impact of the electoral cycle on American foreign policy. His well-conceived model for how domestic political considerations affect decision-making is grounded on finely crafted and well-researched case studies of the wars in Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq. An important contribution to a crucial dimension of American foreign-policy making. -- William B. Quandt, author of Camp David: Peacemaking and Politics
War on the Ballot is a richly detailed account of how electoral constraints affect presidential decision-making in war. In this important study of domestic politics and war, Payne shows how the shadow of an upcoming election can shape presidents’ choices—often with results that do not serve the voters well. -- Elizabeth N. Saunders, author of Leaders at War: How Presidents Shape Military Interventions
Payne effectively demonstrates that domestic electoral politics does indeed affect presidential decisions, often decisively. He presents the argument in such a systematic and persuasive way that it will be very difficult to read his book and still see the recent American wars in the same light. -- Thomas A. Schwartz, author of Henry Kissinger and American Power: A Political Biography
Andrew Payne’s War on the Ballot is replete with compelling evidence that attests to the influence of the electoral cycle on the military strategy of United States presidents. -- Jonny Hall, London School of Economics and Political Science * International Affairs *
Payne’s work is important because there are only a few great books that explain how politics impacts wartime policies. * The Interpreter *
The writing in this book is lucid, and the analysis is as sharp as it is thought-provoking...[War on the Ballot] advances our understanding of how democracies wage wars, while making clear the prominent role that elections play in presidential decision- making. Readers interested in the vital intersections between policy and politics during war will greatly benefit from reading it. -- William A. Taylor, Angelo State University * Congress & the Presidency *

Andrew Payne is a departmental lecturer in international relations at the University of Oxford, where he was previously the Hedley Bull Research Fellow in International Relations and a William Golding Junior Research Fellow at Brasenose College. He serves on the board of Chatham House in London.